Twin authoritarian crackdowns dominate today's outlook — Erdoğan's raid on Turkey's main opposition headquarters is likely to be followed by further CHP detentions within 30 days, while Putin's renewed prestige-missile strikes on Kyiv signal sustained escalation. Structural forecasts on EU cloud sovereignty, the Ebola response, and the wind+solar vs. gas crossover round out a digest weighted toward institutional resilience tests.

The May 23-24 strike is independently confirmed (Reuters, NPR, AP). Russia has used Kinzhal against Kyiv with roughly monthly cadence throughout 2024-2026; the disjunctive resolution (any of three missile types, broad geographic target) makes the base rate very high. Putin's profile (BVI 5, 'long preparation → decisive action → stabilize at new equilibrium' pattern, nuclear/prestige signaling escalating with battlefield setbacks) and the Russia-Ukraine event chain at DEVELOPMENT stage with the dominant 'Real War Escalation' interpretation (50% purity weight, peace-talks-stall 95%) both support continued strike tempo. The military analyst has my pipeline's best Brier (0.17) and weight 0.14. My own military-sector Brier is 0.171 with mild over-prediction (9pp) — I would normally compress, but the resolution criteria are so broad that even after correction this is a high-conviction call. I push to 0.82 above the Skeptic's 0.68 because (a) Kinzhal use alone resolves YES, (b) Russia just demonstrated escalation intent, (c) 30 days covers ~4 typical strike cycles.