Russia's wartime economic strain dominates the outlook: Moscow is highly likely to extend its diesel export ban past September 30 amid a harvest-season fuel crunch, even as brinkmanship at the diesel-powered Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant keeps a low-probability but critical blackout risk alive. Formal mobilization and mass domestic unrest remain unlikely near-term, while a record-low Arctic sea-ice minimum and Russian influence operations against Ukraine's European partners round out the week's forecasts.

The council split sharply (DeepSeek/GPT 0.25-0.31 vs Claude 0.67); the sociologist (improving, weight 1.00 in social) held at 0.33 and the Skeptic concurred (risk 83). The collective-action logic is genuinely stronger than for abstract anti-war dissent — truckers/farmers have concentrated grievances, coordination networks, and clear tactical targets during peak-harvest diesel stress. But the mitigating signals are real: the 9.7bn-ruble rail subsidy, emergency declarations, and Russia's high base rate of SUPPRESSING and quickly localizing such protests. My social track record is FAILING (over by 32pp), so I defer to the Skeptic and compress below the analyst to 0.28. What could make me wrong: an acute diesel shortfall exactly at harvest-transport peak, a viral single blockade triggering copycats, or under-reported existing actions. Pillars: collective action, demographic-structural, institutional trust.