The US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Hungary's historic power transition after Orbán's defeat dominate today's outlook — simultaneously reshaping global energy markets, European security architecture, and Kremlin influence operations, while China exploits Middle East distraction to accelerate South China Sea expansion at Antelope Reef.

Orbán's defeat is confirmed by multiple high-reliability sources (Reuters, Washington Post). The Tisza party explicitly campaigned on European integration and ending Hungary's obstruction of EU Ukraine policy. This represents the most significant shift in European political alignment since Brexit. The 90-day horizon includes government formation (typically 2-4 weeks in Hungary), ministerial appointments, and at least 1-2 EU Council meetings after the new government is operational. EU Council regularly votes on Ukraine-related measures (sanctions renewals, aid packages, military support), so opportunity within the window is near-certain. The new government has strong incentive to signal its pro-EU credentials early. The Skeptic adjusted to 0.67, which I find slightly conservative given the clarity of Tisza's platform. The density matrix for European restructuring shows low purity (0.27), but the Hungary-specific question is much more binary than the broader European chain — the new government either supports EU Ukraine measures or it doesn't, and all signals point to support. My geopolitics track record is solid (Brier 0.110, 8pp overestimation). After minor bias correction from an instinctive 0.75, I arrive at 0.72. Key risks: government formation delays, domestic political constraints, or a specific vote not arising in the 90-day window — though this last risk is minimal given the regular EU agenda.