The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

The political analyst proposed 0.72 and the Skeptic passed at 0.71. This is a very high base-rate, near-mechanical repression event — Belarusian courts have systematically issued in-absentia sentences against exiled opponents on a near-monthly cadence since 2021. I set 0.70, applying mild compression from the analyst number because I classify this as a social/repression forecast and social is a weak sector for me (Brier 0.335); the self-calibration rule mandates deferring toward the Skeptic and compressing toward 50. I do not compress further because the mechanical regularity of the event genuinely supports a high probability. What would make me wrong: a 60-day gap in court scheduling, or definitional narrowness if new sentences target only domestic (not exiled/'additional opposition') defendants.