A post-war pivot dominates today's outlook: the signed US-Iran deal and Hormuz reopening pin Brent below $80 and pull US carriers homeward, even as a new G7-versus-China economic-security front opens around critical minerals — drawing state financing, Chinese cyber-espionage, and Congressional scrutiny of Grok's role in lethal AI targeting — while Russia tightens domestic repression ahead of its September Duma vote.

The sanctions-termination premise is confirmed by the signed deal. The JCPOA analogy is directly applicable: Iran went from 2.8 to 3.9 mbpd within 12 months of the 2015 relief. This deal is more comprehensive (full termination vs. a nuclear-only freeze), and Iran's pre-deal baseline under loose enforcement is already elevated (~3.3-3.5 mbpd), so 4 mbpd is at the upper-but-reachable edge. The Skeptic kept this at 0.78; I trim to 0.70 because the 4.0 threshold is a hard bar that requires both rapid implementation and field/export ramp within exactly 12 months — plausible delays in deal execution are the main downside. My economics underprediction bias keeps me from cutting further. This is a useful long-horizon (yearly) complement to the short-term Brent call, reflecting the same structural supply story.