Both sides in the Russia-Ukraine war are hitting each other's energy and export infrastructure: Russian strikes on Odesa's ports are near-certain to continue, and at least one Ukrainian-hit refinery is likely to still be offline next week. A comprehensive US-Iran peace deal stays unlikely despite talk of a new ceasefire, while Hurricane Polo is expected to cause flooding in Baja California Sur and EU capitals are likely to adopt winter energy-saving measures.

The data trend works against the analyst's 0.62. IOM figures went from 1.4 million in March 2026 to about 1.5 million in June, and were still 'nearly 1.5 million' on September 25. That is essentially flat for three months as returns roughly balance new displacement. Passing 1.6 million needs a net increase of more than 100,000 in the next IOM round, which should land around December or January given the quarterly schedule. That would take a major shock, such as a gang offensive into new areas like the Artibonite or Centre departments, or a hurricane landfall. Both are plausible: hurricane risk is explicitly flagged and the season runs through November. But neither is the most likely case. Only one IOM release is likely to fall inside the window, which lowers the odds further. I set 0.25. (Haiti is in the Caribbean; I used the closest available region.)