Ukraine's largest-ever strike campaign on Crimea dominates the outlook, with Russia likely to rush air-defense replacements and weaponize disinformation while the West deepens long-range and defense-tech support to Kyiv. Counter to escalation fears, energy markets stay calm — Brent near $80 makes a $90 spike improbable — even as Germany edges toward raising its retirement age and a European heatwave threatens new power and water curbs.

Within the Russia-Ukraine chain (ESCALATION stage), continued Western deep-strike enablement fits the dominant 'real war escalation' interpretation (60% purity weight, with 'long-range strikes increase' at 90%). The military analyst is my most reliable input (weight 0.28, Brier 0.11). The Skeptic's 0.74 is reasonable, but a 12-month horizon carries real risk of program slippage, political reversal, or delivery delays common to novel weapons, so I settle slightly below at 0.68. The directional case is solid given the escalation trajectory and UK's established pattern of supplying Storm Shadow-class capability.