Trump's Beijing summit with Xi — Jensen Huang in tow — anchors today's outlook, signaling pragmatic US-China dealmaking that points toward a new Nvidia China-compliant chip and a delay in major Taiwan arms announcements, even as the Russia-Ukraine drone war, $100+ Brent, and acute coalition crises in Israel and the Philippines keep the global stress map fully lit.

Trump-Xi summit just concluded in Beijing with Huang and a large business delegation in tow — this is the strongest possible signal that Trump is in dealmaking, not provocation, mode toward China. Announcing a major Taiwan arms package within 60 days would directly undercut the summit's optics and any tech-access concessions Trump may be negotiating. The China-Indo-Pacific chain shows 55% on 'Strategic Containment' but the current 60-day window is the worst possible moment to escalate visibly. Skeptic-adjusted 0.67 fell in the dead zone; I push to 0.70 based on summit context. APPLYING SELF-CORRECTION: my military Brier 0.309 with 25pp over-bias counsels caution, but this is a negative forecast (no announcement), and 'no major announcement' is base-rate friendly when leaders are actively managing a relationship.