Conflict-driven posture and energy shocks dominate today's outlook: Poland seals border airspace and crude holds near $92 as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars grind on, while Washington moves to formalize defense-AI rules. Beneath the headlines, structural forces hold — coal's decline resists subsidy, Putin preserves succession ambiguity, and Blackstone's redemption gate is more likely to contain stress than collapse into a full suspension.

I confirmed the predicate: Trump signed a June 2 executive order marking a shift toward federal AI oversight (corroborated by CFR). Once frontier-model use moves from experimentation to mission deployment in cyber/national-security systems, agencies historically codify procurement and audit rules within months. The AI chain's dominant interpretation is 'Regulatory Pressure' (35%, increased oversight 94%), directly supporting this. Three council members converged (0.75–0.78). The Skeptic passed it, noting the Anthropic/NSA element is only lightly corroborated — but the forecast does not depend on that specific claim, only on follow-on guidance after a signed EO. The technologist has my best calibration profile (Brier 0.03) and I carry an UNDER-prediction bias in technology (~16pp), so I hold at 0.76 rather than discounting. The main downside is bureaucratic slippage beyond 120 days.