Russia is locking in its war footing: a record 17-trillion-ruble 2027 defense budget, a 1.55-million-strong army and a missile range closure at Kapustin Yar, with no domestic protest likely to push back. Meanwhile a likely December Fed hike, OpenAI's safety-driven training pause and a 3-million-record Pentagon breach show institutions responding under pressure.

I merged the political analyst's 16-trillion proposal (0.78) with the economist's 17-trillion proposal (0.83). I kept the 16-trillion threshold because the Skeptic pointed out that the 0.1-trillion margin over 17 leaves room for small revisions. Reuters, the Moscow Times and Meduza all confirm the 17.1-trillion draft. In 2023–2025 the Duma passed Kremlin budgets with defense lines essentially intact, and Putin has just raised the army's authorized strength to 1.55 million, which has to be funded. So a cut of more than 6% during passage is unlikely. The main risks are line items being moved into classified sections or a technical redefinition, not real cuts. Fiscal strain (the wage–productivity gap, pressure on the budget deficit) is real but has not cut war spending before. Regime dynamics, the mobilization logic and historical cycles all point the same way.