Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Dubai International Airport will announce dedicated counter-UAS upgrades within 120 days Dubai International Airport will announce dedicated counter-UAS upgrades within 120 days Technology Medium Resolved Yearly (91-365d) Incorrect ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: A drone strike causing a fuel-tank fire and flight disruptions at one of the world's busiest airports creates intense pressure for visible security upgrades. UAE aviation authorities are expected to formalize a counter-drone program covering radar, RF detection, and jamming systems, though the announcement may be framed as broader aviation security rather than counter-UAS specifically.
Synthesis: The Gulf crisis dominates today's outlook: allied reluctance to join US naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz contrasts with likely US defensive reinforcements, while cascading effects from drone attacks and energy disruption are driving security and energy-policy shifts from Dubai to London.
Part of Narrative: triggers amplifies 88% Houthis will execute a coord… 95% Iran will conduct a retaliat… 94% Dubai International Airport … Analysis: Technologist +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 68/100
+ Resolution Attempts (24) ▼
Probability History: 03/17/2026, 12:14 AM 03/19/2026, 12:10 PM 03/21/2026, 09:09 PM 03/24/2026, 09:07 AM 03/26/2026, 03:08 AM 03/28/2026, 09:06 PM 03/30/2026, 09:06 PM 06/18/2026, 04:21 PM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (16)
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