Ukraine's accelerating drone campaign against Russian oil and rail logistics dominates the near-term outlook — confirmed by Crimean fuel rationing and a near-certain repeat strike within two weeks — while the AI infrastructure race intensifies with Anthropic's trillion-dollar IPO push and Alphabet's data-center buildout; meanwhile, with Brent back near $98 and the Middle East war in de-escalation, the much-hyped $115 oil scenario is unlikely to materialize.

The cybersecurity analyst and Skeptic both landed near 0.35. I lower this to 0.28 for two reasons. First and decisively: my own cybersecurity track record is FAILING (Brier 0.558, systematically OVER-predicting by ~48pp), so I must apply an explicit downward bias correction and defer to the structural base rate rather than my intuition. Second, the bar is high — a CONFIRMED DESTRUCTIVE operation (data-wiping/physical disruption), not the far more common espionage intrusion. Iranian APTs have historically favored reconnaissance and reversible disruption over attributable destructive attacks, which risk kinetic retaliation. The Middle East chain is in aftermath/de-escalation, reducing the immediate trigger. The Global Cybersecurity chain's 'Cyberwarfare Intensification' interpretation is only the 20% scenario (state-sponsored attacks 85% but mostly non-destructive). I therefore forecast ~72% confidence it does NOT occur within the window.