Oil markets dominate the outlook with Brent at $109/bbl amid the Hormuz throughput collapse — both 30-day and June price thresholds look highly likely to clear despite analyst hedging. Secondary themes: continued Russian coastal pollution from Ukrainian strikes, TSMC's angstrom-class Taiwan expansion, and post-strike Iranian and Russian domestic crackdowns.

Current spot ($109.73) is $14+ above the June threshold. For the monthly average to fall below $95, prices would need to drop ~15% and stay there for most of June. The Middle East chain is in 'aftermath' (lifecycle stage suggests stabilization, not full reversal), and the dominant energy-shock interpretation gives 90% to sustained high prices. The economist_bull explicitly underweighted current spot (0.40 is hard to reconcile with $109 today) — economist_bull weight 0.24 in economics. I push above their estimate but compress for my weak economics record (over by 31pp): raw conviction ~0.78, final 0.70. Downside: Trump-led brokered deal with Iran (BVI 8 escalate-deal-claim-victory cycle) could trigger fast price collapse — this is the primary tail risk.