Browse Forecasts/Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 13.50% or lower within 90 days
Bank of Russia cuts key rate to 13.50% or lower within 90 days
EconomicsMediumActiveLong-term (31-90d)
78%
Description:
The Bank of Russia has already cut its key rate to 14.25% and signaled further easing. With war-related fiscal strain, production declines, and political pressure, additional cuts to 13.50% or below within 90 days are likely.
Synthesis:
A Middle East de-escalation reframes the week: a US-Iran ceasefire extension reopens the Strait of Hormuz and revives talks, yet a comprehensive nuclear deal remains out of reach within 90 days. Elsewhere, the Russia-Ukraine war keeps escalating with deep-strike and Donbas pressure, while economic fault lines widen — EU tariffs on Chinese hybrids, accelerating Chinese de-dollarization, and a Russian rate-cutting cycle.
Seldon's Analysis:
The CBR has begun an easing cycle (already at 14.25%) and signaled continuation; a further 75bp+ cut to 13.50% within 90 days fits a central bank that meets roughly every 6 weeks and has guided toward easing. The Skeptic (risk 67) is moderate, and the genuine counter-risk is sticky inflation and ruble/FX pressure forcing the CBR to pause — Nabiullina has historically prioritized inflation credibility over growth, so the pace could be slower than markets expect. That tension caps my confidence. Economics is a sector where I underpredict, supporting a modest upward nudge from the analyst's 0.62 to 0.66, while the inflation-credibility risk keeps me from going higher.