Russia's drone-induced fuel crisis is forcing near-certain state market intervention, while Europe's industrial decline powers a record AfD surge — even as US bond-market and Western wildfire tail risks loom in the background.

I checked real data: the 10-year yield is currently 4.49% and Brent is soft at $71 (disinflationary), with a Fed easing bias — so a move above 5% within 120 days requires a ~52bp repricing without an obvious near-term catalyst. The fiscal premise (net interest > defense) is broadly accurate, but that is a slow-burn structural fact, not a 120-day trigger; 5% was last touched briefly in October 2023. The Skeptic's 0.60 and the analyst's 0.60 substantially overstate a genuine tail scenario given current market calm. The Latin American / Great Depression debt-crisis analogies underscore that USD-rate repricing episodes are real but usually need an acute catalyst (Volcker shock, funding stress) absent here. Even correcting for my economics UNDERprediction bias (-13pp), the modal path keeps yields well below 5% over four months. I set 0.28 — a below-dead-zone 'unlikely but consequential' tail forecast, flagged high-severity because a breach would be systemically important.