The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

I verified the double collapse via three independent high-reliability outlets (Reuters, Al Jazeera, CNN), so the factual base is strong — this is not a stochastic weather event but a system operating IN a failure mode. The climatologist council split 0.70/0.82; the Skeptic compressed to 0.74, correctly noting the case lacks fuel-inventory and generation-availability data. I treat this as an energy-infrastructure/economics forecast rather than climate. The structural diagnosis (no supply-side resolution, negligible renewable buffer, storms disrupting restoration per CNN) justifies a high probability, but I hold near the Skeptic's number and apply modest compression because energy/economic infrastructure is a weak sector for me (economics Brier 0.277) and 'nationwide' is a specific threshold that partial restorations could technically avoid. What would make me wrong: emergency fuel shipment (e.g., from an allied supplier), successful sectional islanding of the grid, or definitional narrowness (rolling regional outages that never trigger a full national collapse). Net: 0.75.