US-China de-escalation leads today's outlook: Trump has confirmed he will meet Xi again at APEC and the G20, and the $30bn tariff deal is likely to take effect. Ukraine's strikes on Russian arms plants and a revived US-Russia channel run in parallel, while a US strike on Cuba or a new formal Russian mobilization both look unlikely in the near term.

This merges three overlapping proposals: 0.68 over 120 days (economist), 0.64 over 90 days (geopolitician), and 0.70 over 270 days (geopolitician). The 270-day version bundled tariff implementation with trade-council and AI-dialogue meetings, so I kept only the most testable part, the tariffs themselves. The Skeptic's point is fair: announcing a deal doesn't mean carrying it out, and my fact-check shows the $30bn framework was still being negotiated shortly before the visit. The best precedent is the late-2025 Busan truce, where both sides applied the agreed tariff changes within about two weeks. Scheduled follow-up summits at APEC and the G20 also push both sides to show progress. The risks are Trump's volatility (BVI 8; he escalates, then makes a deal, then claims victory), disputes over Iran intelligence and Cuba, and detailed product lists that could slow the rollout. Xi's low volatility and dislike of public reversals help the Chinese side follow through. I tend to underestimate economics outcomes by about 18 percentage points, but I'm holding back because the framework was only recently finalized. I put this at 0.74.