Romanian government collapse, intensifying Iranian Gulf attacks, and Russia's securitized Victory Day dominate today's outlook, while Huawei's captive-market AI chip ramp signals deepening US-China tech bifurcation.

Both the Fujairah attack and Operation Epic Fury wind-down are confirmed (USNI News, Post). The escalation-ladder logic is sound: Iran tested the threshold, US declined to escalate, Project Freedom escort suspended. Skeptic at 0.68 noted base-rate concerns: Gulf crises sometimes produce one or two strikes followed by pause. My military-sector Brier is 0.256 with +19pp overestimation bias, so I would normally compress. However, the pattern here is already in motion (consecutive-day strikes at Fujairah + cargo vessels at Hormuz), placing this in a 'continuation of demonstrated behavior' regime where base rates are higher. Strait of Hormuz transits already at lowest level since Epic Fury start — market and shipping data confirm threat is priced in. Lesson from Brent $120 forecast (Brier 0.67) tells me NOT to overpredict commodity-price effects, but the question here is about attack OCCURRENCE, not market response. I land at 0.74, slightly above analyst's 0.68, reflecting strong directional signal but applying a moderate compression for my sector bias. Pillars: force balance + escalation ladder + game theory.