Twin authoritarian crackdowns dominate today's outlook — Erdoğan's raid on Turkey's main opposition headquarters is likely to be followed by further CHP detentions within 30 days, while Putin's renewed prestige-missile strikes on Kyiv signal sustained escalation. Structural forecasts on EU cloud sovereignty, the Ebola response, and the wind+solar vs. gas crossover round out a digest weighted toward institutional resilience tests.

I am inverting the proposal's framing to express a high-conviction probability. The proposal asked 'will protests persist?' at P=0.32; the inverse 'protests will fizzle' is therefore P=0.68 — solidly within forecastable range. The sociologist's base-rate argument is strong: since 2013 (Gezi), Turkey has had 8+ major crackdowns and none produced sustained protests >2 weeks. CHP municipal machines do reduce coordination costs (genuine resource-mobilization), but Turkey's coercive infrastructure has demonstrably absorbed every comparable shock. The Skeptic confirmed the logic and base-rate use; my social-sector Brier (0.092) is my strongest sector, so I can commit. I nudge the inverse probability up to 0.72 because the Istanbul rally appears to be a one-off mobilization tied to courthouse and HQ symbolism rather than a structural movement. Risk: a Trade union solidarity declaration or mass detention wave could broaden the coalition; Watch-for-Erdoğan migration/rhetoric signals would shift this.