AI-enabled cyberattacks and hybrid warfare headline today's outlook: a Reuters-confirmed Russian-speaking crew is weaponizing AI coding agents against Western firms, likely to draw formal regulator warnings and spread further, while Russia intensifies its deep-strike and information-war campaign around Kyiv. On the deterrence side, Sweden's already-announced Gripen-and-warship deployment to Finland hardens NATO's Baltic flank — even as an Iran/Hormuz oil-price shock and a formal German AfD ban both remain unlikely tail risks.

This is a low-probability, high-severity tail forecast and I set it well below the dead zone. Brent's current level (~$89.70) means a move above $110 requires a ~+23% spike within 30 days — the market is emphatically NOT pricing an imminent Hormuz disruption. Critically, despite the Middle East chain's high internal purity (0.88 'Real Escalation'), its lifecycle stage is AFTERMATH, i.e. post-peak de-escalation — a strong counter-signal against a fresh supply shock. Historically, Hormuz-closure rhetoric almost never converts to sustained actual closure (Iran depends on the strait for its own exports; game-theory logic makes full closure self-defeating). The economist has the top sector weight (1.00), but my own economics over-prediction bias (+12pp) plus the price evidence pull me below the Skeptic's 0.22 to 0.12.