Oil retreats below $100 as US-Iran ceasefire mediation caps a Middle East supply scare, even as Russia's Black Sea/Danube port campaign keeps escalation risk — and Romanian spillover — high. AI decoupling hardens with Washington and Beijing set to skip any binding safety pact, while the confirmed Nvidia-SK $500B buildout signals the industrial phase of the AI race.

This is the concrete-action counterpart to the broader 'no binding agreement' forecast, so I keep it distinct but lower. A named, enforceable US restriction specifically on AI *safety* research collaboration is more specific than the general decoupling trend and depends on regulatory follow-through, which historically lags rhetoric. The technologist has an excellent recent Brier (0.039), supporting reliance on their read. The AI chain's export-control outcome (85%) and existing entity-list momentum favor action, but 'safety research' carveouts are politically fuzzier than chip export controls. Skeptic adjusted to 0.66 flags this ambiguity. I hold at the analyst/skeptic 0.66 — above the dead zone and consistent with the directional decoupling signal without overcommitting to a specific administrative vehicle.