Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

This is the Skeptic's strongest-rated proposal (risk score 84): specific, falsifiable and grounded in an already-recurring behavior. Russia's wartime preference for centralized network control, the demonstrated linkage of mobile shutdowns to missile-threat warnings, and the parallel ban on filming air-defense activity all indicate coordinated, repeatable information-control measures rather than isolated outages. The intensifying Ukrainian deep-strike campaign (confirmed above) guarantees more drone-alert triggers in the 45-day window, mechanically raising the odds of recurrence. The 'Authoritarian Control Escalation' interpretation in the cybersecurity density matrix (Russian internet isolation 95%, crackdown on encrypted comms 90%) corroborates the direction. Technology is a strong sector for me (Brier 0.142). I keep the analyst's 0.74 — well-calibrated. Network theory + infrastructure-readiness pillars apply.