Reciprocal deep strikes dominate the Russia-Ukraine war as Kyiv's drones crush Russian refining to a 21-year low while Moscow readies another mass aerial barrage; meanwhile the Iran war's aftermath drives twin proliferation pressures — an Iranian nuclear hedge and a US missile-defense procurement surge — and Europe edges further toward conscription.

This is a well-constructed LOW-probability forecast and I keep it that way. The Skeptic's high risk score (84) reflects strong base-rate handling: no major anti-government protest occurred 2022-2025 despite immense strain, because martial law and nationalist norms sharply raise the free-rider cost of mobilization. Veterans and mobilized families have genuine grievance and organizational capacity (collective-action pillar), and elite signaling (Podolyak) runs ahead of public opinion — but public opinion has consistently opposed territorial concessions, and institutional trust in war leadership remains high. My social sector shows a mild under-prediction bias, which would argue for a small upward nudge, but the structural suppression case is strong enough that I hold at 0.25. Note this is a background trend forecast, not tied to a single triggering event.