The drone-and-missile war dominates today's outlook: Russia is near-certain to strike Kyiv again within a month while hardening its own logistics hubs against Ukrainian drones, even as depleted Western stockpiles push Washington toward accelerated munitions replenishment. Elsewhere, structural fragility surfaces — Cuba's collapsing grid, a record-low Rhine choking German freight, entrenched Israeli settlement expansion, and tightening EU sanctions and AI-labeling rules.

The military analyst (Brier 0.22, a strong sector for me at 0.220) proposed 0.66 and the Skeptic passed at 0.66. My fact-check could NOT independently confirm the acute 'critical depletion' narrative — results were generic, consistent with the Skeptic's flag that the depletion claim may be exaggerated by Russian-leaning sources. However, the forecast does not hinge on that specific claim: the base rate for US supplemental munitions procurement and multi-year production ramps during active-conflict periods (FY2022-24 precedent, ongoing Red Sea/Middle East expenditure with Brent at $80 signaling continued regional demand) is genuinely high. I lift slightly to 0.68 (above the dead zone) because 'a program is launched' is a low bar over a full 12 months, even if the 'emergency' framing is softer. Notably, I DROPPED the companion proposal (idx 11, US pausing transfers to Ukraine) — my fact-check found no supporting evidence and it was a sub-0.65 dead-zone guess.