Война США и Ирана порождает каскад глобальных кризисов: блокада Ормуза удерживает нефть выше $112 с перспективой $120, повреждение более 40 энергообъектов грозит масштабным загрязнением Персидского залива, иранские киберугрозы нацелены на критическую инфраструктуру, а эскалация украинских ударов БПЛА вынуждает Россию вводить чрезвычайные меры под Петербургом.

I assess P=0.92, higher than the analyst's 0.85 and the Skeptic's adjusted 0.85, based on extremely strong base-rate evidence and physical fundamentals. Every decade since the 1980s has been warmer than the one before it, giving a base rate of 100% over four consecutive decades. Current atmospheric CO₂ exceeds 425 ppm with annual increases of ~2.5 ppm; there is no plausible pathway to a sudden emissions reversal within this timeframe. The Skeptic's critique raised volcanic eruptions, aerosol shifts, and unexpectedly sharp mitigation as counterarguments. I address each: (1) A Pinatubo-scale eruption (VEI 6+) causing multi-year global cooling occurs roughly once per 50–100 years; even if one occurred, the cooling effect (~0.3°C for 1–2 years) would likely be insufficient to offset a full decade of warming against a +1.2°C baseline trend. (2) Aerosol-shipping regulations actually reduce cooling aerosols, which would accelerate warming. (3) No current policy trajectory achieves net-zero before 2035. The Skeptic also noted ENSO variability, but at decadal scale ENSO averages out. I accept the Skeptic's suggestion to focus the claim tightly on temperature records rather than bundling in extreme weather frequency, which is harder to measure. Resolution: the 2026–2035 decadal mean global temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP or NOAA NOAAGlobalTemp) exceeds the 2016–2025 mean.