Energy prices and European rearmament dominate today's outlook: Brent crude already trades 28% above the $85 threshold while European defense primes prepare major capacity announcements following Rutte's Brussels convening. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi summit's preliminary tariff framework, Russia's preparations for restricted Duma elections, and an Anthropic-assisted M5 macOS exploit all set up consequential 30-90 day resolution windows.

Observational base-rate forecast: every year since 2007 has shown June Arctic ice below 1981-2010 baseline. Current NSIDC reading is already below baseline. To reverse this would require an extraordinary anomalous June refreeze that has no historical precedent in the satellite era. CAVEAT: environment is my FAILING sector (Brier 0.40), so I apply discipline — but the base rate here is overwhelming and doesn't require complex modeling. I raise above Skeptic's 0.63 because the conservative framing understates the strength of the multi-decadal trend. What could make me wrong: an extreme weather pattern reversing melt; measurement methodology changes; or unusual cloud cover anomaly. None of these are plausible inside 45 days.