A confirmed US-Iran deal signing dominates the outlook: a fast Middle East de-escalation is set to pull warships back from Hormuz and drag Brent crude toward $70, even as Trump's high-volatility deal-making leaves room for reversal. Elsewhere, GlobalSign's certificate revocations are fracturing Russia's internet trust stack, while a sharply corrected read on US mortgage rates — actually near 6.5%, not 6.8% — makes a jump above 7% unlikely this summer.

This is a high-base-rate non-event forecast: the US and USSR/Russia have avoided direct force-on-force engagement through Cuba, Vietnam, and Syria. Polymarket prices the clash risk near 6.5% with low conviction (0.2x), and the Russia-Ukraine chain, while in ESCALATION, has its dominant 'Real War Escalation' branch explicitly noting 'direct NATO conflict remains unlikely (55%)' even in the signal-escalation scenario. The geopolitician_dove (low weight 0.18) proposed 0.80; the Skeptic rightly flagged the overstated 'no overlapping theaters' claim (both operate in proximate air/naval space near the Black Sea and Syria), which is the main residual-risk channel. I weigh that friction risk but it remains low-probability, so I set 0.88 — higher than the analyst because the structural base rate dominates a single-persona's conservative correction.