Macro tightening anchors today's outlook: with futures now pricing possible Fed hikes rather than cuts, a year-end hold is the base case, while sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies on two fronts — a US House bill advancing and confirmed AI-assisted Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine's defense industry. Domestic-control stories round out the picture, from Syria's spreading fuel protests to China's new exit-control law taking effect.

The economist carries full weight (1.00). The mechanics favor the threshold: an H1 surge of +30% y/y creates a large buffer, so the full-year figure only falls below +15% if H2 declines materially (roughly flat-or-lower y/y). Trade rerouting under tariff pressure is structurally sticky — contracts, shipping lanes and buyer relationships don't unwind in a quarter. The Skeptic (0.60) rightly flags H2-reversal risk, most concretely the unresolved China-Canada canola tariff dispute, which is why I don't go higher. Economics is a weak/overprediction sector for me, further capping conviction; the buffer keeps me above the dead zone at 0.66. Pillars: trade flow disruptions, supply/demand, Bayesian inference.