War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

Fact-check confirms FT/Meduza/Euractiv reporting that Sweden, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland are explicitly urging the Commission to restart work on the >€200bn in frozen assets — so the reviving of the debate is already partly underway, not speculative. This is precisely the 'formal track' the forecast targets, and the coalition push plus upcoming Ecofin/European Council calendar make a paper/agenda item within 60 days likely. The forecast wisely does NOT claim confiscation. Skeptic (84) flagged EU institutional friction as the main brake — valid, which is why I keep this below 0.80. The 2024 windfall-profits precedent shows the EU ratchets policy under battlefield/funding pressure. Geopolitician weight is top-tier; I nudge to 0.72 from the analyst's 0.68 because the triggering coalition action is already confirmed on the wire.