Institutional guardrails hold as the Supreme Court shields Fed independence, while a fragile US-Iran de-escalation pulls oil lower and eases spike risk — even as Iran's currency and streets stay under inflation stress. Meanwhile confrontation grinds on at the edges: Russian energy-cyber retaliation against Ukraine, armed shadow-fleet tankers in the Baltic, and tightening tech decoupling across Europe and East Asia.

I checked live data: Brent is $71.94 and DOWN 1.34%, not rising — directly undercutting the economist's surge thesis. The Middle East chain is in AFTERMATH with the dominant interpretation being stabilization (informal ceasefire holds ~70%), and my other forecast anticipates a follow-on US-Iran negotiating round — all bearish for a price spike. The Skeptic scored 84 and endorsed 0.72, but even the proposing council priced it at 0.66-0.68, and none of that accounts for oil actively falling in a de-escalating environment. Reaching $85 requires an ~18% move; the one-touch ('at least once') framing keeps genuine tail risk alive (a single Hormuz incident could spike prices), so I do not go to the floor — but on balance occurrence is unlikely. The economist carries a low weight (0.22) here. I set 0.33, deliberately deviating well below the Skeptic because real-time price action and lifecycle stage are decisive counter-evidence. Supply/Demand inelasticity cuts both ways: it also means falling geopolitical premium drops prices fast.