Mobilization fears will NOT drive 100,000+ Russians to emigrate within 60 days
Internet searches for 'mobilization order' in Russia have reportedly quadrupled, echoing the September 2022 exodus dynamics. However, in the absence of an actual mobilization decree, the trigger is asymmetric: search-anxiety alone has not historically produced six-figure outflows. Russia's tightened exit controls and border infrastructure since 2022 further reduce flow elasticity. Resolves YES (forecast confirmed) if cumulative emigration over 60 days falls below 100,000 per Russian and transit-country statistics.
Twin authoritarian crackdowns dominate today's outlook — Erdoğan's raid on Turkey's main opposition headquarters is likely to be followed by further CHP detentions within 30 days, while Putin's renewed prestige-missile strikes on Kyiv signal sustained escalation. Structural forecasts on EU cloud sovereignty, the Ebola response, and the wind+solar vs. gas crossover round out a digest weighted toward institutional resilience tests.
I express this as the inverse of the original proposal (which set 0.20 for the 100k-emigration outcome, giving 0.80 for the non-event). The September 2022 exodus was triggered by an actual decree, not anticipation. Without a Kremlin announcement, search-spike data is noise rather than a leading indicator strong enough to mobilize 100k people across hardened borders. Sociologist analyst weight 0.09 with strong Brier (0.09). My social sector is my strongest (Brier 0.092). I lift the inverse from 0.80 to 0.82 because (a) Russia's border infrastructure has tightened materially since 2022, (b) Kazakhstan/Georgia/Armenia have introduced friction, (c) no Kremlin signal yet appeared. Risk: a Putin speech announcing partial mobilization expansion (Watch-for signal: 'long public speech or essay') would invalidate this rapidly.