Russia-Ukraine escalation dominates today's outlook — Ukrainian Flamingo deep strikes, a second car-bombing of a senior Russian general, northern-flank force buildup, and Baltic GPS jamming all point to widening confrontation. Meanwhile an Iran-war energy shock keeps US inflation above 4%, though Brent's retreat to ~$92 caps fears of a $115 spike, and anti-immigration unrest in Northern Ireland tests UK social stability.

Fact-check confirms the June 9 car bombing near Moscow killed a senior officer, explicitly described as the 'second high-ranking military officer' targeted, fitting the established assassination pattern. The Russia-Ukraine chain is in ESCALATION with an 'Internal Power Struggle' sub-interpretation ('purge of military officials' 85%). A 6-month window combined with an already-active campaign and demonstrated Ukrainian/internal capability to reach targets inside Moscow makes a repeat plausibly above the base rate. I temper slightly from over-confidence because such killings are episodic (the prior gap was ~18 months), and geopolitics is a weak sector for me (slight overprediction bias), so I hold at 0.68 rather than higher. The political analyst (no track data) proposed 0.62; the just-confirmed event raises my estimate modestly above that.