War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

The geopolitician council converged strongly (0.71/0.79/0.86) and this analyst carries top weight (Brier 0.20). The density matrix for the Russia-Ukraine chain (purity 0.42) splits between 'Multifront Strategy' (50%) and 'Escalation Entrapment' (40%) — both of which have 'peace talks stall' at ~100%. That is powerful convergent evidence: under the two dominant interpretations, a ceasefire is essentially ruled out. Putin's behavioral profile (BVI 5) shows de-escalation only via a face-saving formula preserving territorial gains — with Russia advancing, he has no incentive to freeze now. My historical-analogy query returned nothing, but the base rate is unambiguous: every 2022-2026 negotiation round collapsed when one side held momentum. Skeptic (76) noted the Budanov/Gerasimov specifics are not independently verified — I treat the meeting as genuinely possible, which is precisely why the forecast targets 'no ceasefire' rather than 'no talks.' I apply a modest downward correction for my geopolitics over-prediction bias (+9pp), landing at 0.78 rather than the council's ~0.79.