Russia's war economy strains under a widening fuel crisis — rationing across nearly all regions and refinery attrition forcing broader controls — while century-low EU trade cements decoupling; Iran-related fronts stay contained on the US axis even as the regional war simmers, and drone warfare escalation drives defense-tech procurement on both sides.

The evidence is unusually concrete: current signals already reference salvos of up to 200 Shahed/Geran drones on peak nights, and ten confirmed converted bases point to sustained industrial expansion — so the 100/day threshold appears near-met on a peak basis and plausible as a sustained rate within six months. The proposal came from the technologist (weight 1.00), not the disqualified military agent (Brier 0.45), which strengthens my confidence in the industrial-trajectory logic. However, this resolves in my FAILING military sector (Brier 0.45, over by ~34pp), so I apply deliberate compression: what could make me wrong? (1) production/component bottlenecks under sanctions and the concurrent fuel/refinery crisis straining logistics, (2) Ukrainian deep strikes destroying the new bases, (3) definitional gap between peak-night surges and a sustained daily-average rate. These pull me down from a naive 0.85 to 0.72, above the analyst's 0.67 only because the peak-threshold appears already achieved.