Macro tightening anchors today's outlook: with futures now pricing possible Fed hikes rather than cuts, a year-end hold is the base case, while sanctions pressure on Russia intensifies on two fronts — a US House bill advancing and confirmed AI-assisted Russian cyberattacks on Ukraine's defense industry. Domestic-control stories round out the picture, from Syria's spreading fuel protests to China's new exit-control law taking effect.

The geopolitician (weight 1.00) is operating in my strongest sector (where I slightly underpredict). The observable test is bill INTRODUCTION, a low bar largely within the SNP's own agenda control, not passage — and the SNP has a repeated post-election pattern of tabling referendum legislation despite certain Westminster Section 30 refusal. The new pan-UK pro-independence pact adds political momentum. The Skeptic (0.62) fairly notes the move is largely symbolic given the guaranteed refusal, but symbolism doesn't lower the odds of the bill being introduced. Because introduction is nearly a scheduling decision, I lean up to 0.68. This fits the 'Populist Realignment' strand of the European political-restructuring chain. Pillars: psychohistory, power dynamics.