Elections and their aftermath lead today's outlook. Israel faces long coalition talks after the October 27 vote, and Serbia's contest between Vucic and the student movement is likely to bring large new protests in Belgrade. Meanwhile, Ukraine's deep strikes on Russian energy sites look set to continue, and Iranian assassination threats keep the risk to US officials elevated, though it remains low.

The geopolitician gave 0.65 for no snap election or collapse, which is 0.35 for the affirmative and inside the range I should avoid. I narrowed the claim to the government falling, because a dissolution and snap election before the April 2027 presidential election is much less likely and should not be bundled in. The base rate is high: since the 2024 hung parliament, the Barnier government fell to a censure vote over the budget in December 2024 and Bayrou lost a confidence vote in September 2025, so the fall budget period is when governments are most at risk. Against this, budgets that rely on Article 49.3 have survived censure motions before, including the 2026 budget with two failed motions. Six months before the presidential election, the Socialists and parts of LR have reasons not to set off chaos, and Moody's holding Aa3 suggests markets see a managed crisis. Mass protests raise the pressure, but on their own they have not toppled French governments. I have little verified detail on the current balance in the Assembly, which keeps me cautious. Weighing the high budget-season base rate against pre-election restraint, I put it at 0.27.