War economies harden on both fronts: the Russia-Ukraine attrition entrenches as Europe revives the frozen-assets debate and Moscow deepens conscription registration and corporate coercion, while Trump's new grid-security emergency order accelerates US-China tech decoupling and primes a PRC energy-sector cyber disclosure. A Swiss neutrality referendum offers Moscow a longshot sanctions loophole — but polling points firmly to defeat.

The proposal is already drafted and public — not rumor — and the political council converged (0.78-0.82). This is fundamentally a legislative-process forecast with a high base rate: analogous measures (e-summons, mobilization decrees) passed in under six weeks in 2022-2023, and one analyst notes an administrative/executive route could be even faster. Putin's profile shows a steady expansion of coercive state capacity that resists rollback. Two counterweights: the political analyst has no verified track record, and this sits in my FAILING social sector (Brier 0.359, +32pp over-prediction). I therefore apply the mandated compression, pulling from the council's ~0.78 down to 0.68 and leaning on the Skeptic's 0.76 as an anchor while discounting further for interagency scope-narrowing risk. What would make me wrong: (1) scope narrowed and delayed in interagency review, (2) enactment via quiet regulation not captured by resolution criteria, (3) deprioritization amid other wartime legislation.