Russia's war on Ukraine dominates the outlook — from a winter energy crisis and continued rejection of wartime elections to intensifying domestic repression and cross-border influence and interference operations reaching into France's 2027 race — while NATO's red line holds (a direct Russia-UK strike remains unlikely) and southern Europe's peak-season wildfire emergency runs hot.

The baseline here is near-tautological: Russian information operations targeting Ukrainian legitimacy and mobilization narratives run essentially continuously, and the current elite-legitimacy debate over wartime elections (see the linked no-election-date forecast) gives them a ready-made hook — so the raw likelihood of intensified amplification is very high (0.80+). The binding uncertainty is documented, attributable confirmation of a *coordinated* campaign within the window. My cybersecurity sector is FAILING (Brier 0.48, though only n=2, overpredict ~36pp), so I compress the near-certain baseline down to 0.70 rather than the higher figure the base rate would justify. This also keeps it clear of the dead zone while respecting my sector unreliability. It complements, without duplicating, the election-scheduling and French-attribution forecasts. Pillars: network theory, information_warfare.