Ukraine's deepening drone campaign against St. Petersburg's military-industrial complex anchors today's outlook — near-certain repeat strikes are pulling NATO toward a €60B+ summit aid package and pushing Russia toward fresh internet-control measures, even as falling Brent (~$93) deflates war-premium oil forecasts and Russian anti-war mobilization stays improbable.

I merged three overlapping proposals (technologist 0.68/180d, political 0.62/270d, political Hawk+Dove merged 0.57/90d, near-zero persona spread 0.02 indicating cross-persona agreement). Technology is my strongest sector (Brier 0.028) and the technologist is highly reliable (Brier 0.03), so I weight the cleanest, best-scoped version: 'draft rules or pilot within 180 days.' Evidence is concrete — Digital Development Minister Shadayev publicly cited European precedents, and Russia already has the Gosuslugi/VK/RuTube identity rails that lower implementation barriers. This fits Russia's consistent pattern of converting child-safety/wartime-control rhetoric into platform restrictions (sovereign internet law, VPN bans). However, forecast memory flags overconfidence on Russian administrative actions (a prior St. Petersburg 'emergency restrictions' forecast at 0.95 resolved INCORRECT due to bureaucratic inertia), so I discount the aggressive 90-day framing and stay slightly below the technologist's 0.68. The 180-day 'draft-or-pilot' bar (not full enforcement) is the most forecastable and is comfortably above the dead zone. Final: 0.66.