Sovereign-duration stress dominates the outlook as UK 30-year gilts press toward 6% (a 1998 high) and Japan's normalization regime hardens, while the confirmed US-Iran escalation radiates into crypto sanctions enforcement and Iranian diaspora spyware; Russia's fuel-driven inflation blocks rate cuts and combined strikes on Ukrainian telecom intensify.

The three-model sociologist council converged strongly (0.72-0.75) on the localized-accountability mechanism, and the sociologist carries full weight (1.00, Brier 0.22). The causal chain is robust: camp co-location, kin networks, visible rationing, and compensation-list disputes generate district-level contention without needing national coordination — a near-universal pattern after catastrophic South Asian disasters. The Skeptic (76) accepted the logic but flagged base-rate calibration on visible, reported protest specifically. Because social is a sector where I OVERPREDICT (+12pp), I decline to follow the council up toward 0.72 and instead hold at the analyst's revised 0.66, keeping it just above the dead zone on the strength of the mechanism and the sheer scale of displacement. Pillars: migration/displacement + collective action + institutional trust.