Wartime supply shocks dominate the outlook: Ukraine's drone campaign is pushing Russia toward a fuel-rationing crisis and deeper telecom lockdowns, while Iran's fresh attack on Gulf shipping draws a likely US naval reinforcement. Elsewhere, Europe tightens shadow-fleet enforcement, Colombia's new hardline president eyes the ELN, and—against the alarmist narrative—benign volatility suggests the S&P 500 avoids a 5% drop.

I deviate sharply from the economist's 0.60 because the market data contradicts an imminent crash. Live indicators: the S&P 500 sits at 7,357 (essentially flat day-over-day) and the VIX is only 19.7 — elevated slightly but well below stress levels (crashes typically require VIX 28+). The unconditional base rate for a 5% S&P drawdown in any 30-day window is roughly 20-25%; AI-profitability rotation fears and Fed stress-test chatter push it modestly above baseline, hence 0.30 rather than lower. The 'Global economic volatility' chain's dominant interpretation is 'Russian Domestic Stress with Contained Contagion' (systemic global contagion only 25%), reinforcing that current stress is localized, not systemic. I frame this as the negative of the analyst proposal — clearing the 35-65% dead zone — and note my economics history skews toward underprediction, which I counterbalance against the speculative bearish framing here. Bayesian inference (prior + benign volatility regime) drives the estimate.