Iran's regime is set to weather the US strike campaign through September without collapsing even as further Gulf-shipping attacks loom and Brent jumps past $86, while Ukraine's drone war drives Russian refining to a 21-year low and pushes fuel-rationing emergencies toward new regions.

This is my highest-conviction call. Base rate: entrenched security regimes almost never fall within weeks from air/missile pressure alone absent a coercive-core split — none is visible. The 1953 Operation Ajax analogy shows Iranian regime change historically required covert coup mechanics (paid mobs, bribed officers, internal defection), not external bombing, which typically produces rally-round-the-flag consolidation. The Skeptic passed this at 0.87 with a strong logic score and clear disconfirmers. The Middle East event chain sits at 0.88 purity for 'Real Escalation' — but escalation of the war is orthogonal to regime survival; wartime securitization actually raises the regime's short-run survival odds. I nudge slightly above analyst/Skeptic consensus (0.87→0.90) because my geopolitics track record shows I systematically UNDER-predict (by ~26pp), and the disconfirming conditions (IRGC fracture, opposition seizing institutions) are demonstrably absent. Pillars: regime_dynamics, mobilization_coercion, historical_cycles.