Pentagon's confirmed 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany and the Federal Reserve's high-conviction extended pause anchor today's outlook, while Iran's Hormuz tax theater and Chornobyl forest fire generate headlines but lower follow-through risk than the consensus suggests.

From March 1, 2026, Roskomnadzor has formal legal authority to block any website and disconnect Runet from the global network — the legal scaffolding is already in place. OONI has confirmed degraded GitHub connectivity, and Meduza reports access deteriorating despite official denials. Base rate of Russian internet tightening over 90-day windows post-2022 is high; the Skeptic correctly notes the outcome basket is broad (throttling counts, additional endpoints count). My cybersecurity track record is severely poor (over by 72pp), which forces meaningful compression — analyst gave 0.66, I would naturally go higher given the legal trigger date and confirmed degradation, but my self-correction caps me at 0.68. Risk: Roskomnadzor may prefer ambiguous throttling to formal blocking to avoid forcing developer migration to harder-to-control alternatives. Pillars: attack_surface + cyber_deterrence support direction.