Industrial decoupling deepens as Beijing tightens Nvidia restrictions and Germany's labor market crosses the 3-million unemployment line, while Middle East aftermath cements Iran's Hormuz toll regime and accelerates US Navy shipboard laser adoption. A WHO-declared Ebola emergency in DRC-Uganda and Ukraine's mounting manpower crisis complete a digest dominated by structural deterioration outpacing institutional response.

Fact-check confirms the toll system is real and Iran has even tied it to a sovereignty/legitimacy narrative (ISW May 14 update notes Iran 'prioritizing upholding the legitimacy of its claims' over collection volume). Once instituted, rescinding requires either a major diplomatic deal (low probability per Middle East 'Aftermath' density matrix — 50% Managed Deescalation but only 30% chance of sanctions relief) or a humiliating Iranian climbdown. The toll need not be vigorously enforced to remain de jure in place. My geopolitics sector is WEAK (Brier 0.286), so I compress slightly from analyst 0.76 toward 0.74 rather than lifting. Geopolitician weight 0.25 — moderate confidence. Key downside: a comprehensive US-Iran deal under Trump-style 'announce victory' diplomacy could include toll suspension, but the 365-day window favors persistence.