A collapsed US-Iran ceasefire reignites strikes even as calm $76 oil signals markets expect a limited, Trump-style exchange rather than war; meanwhile Western technological decoupling accelerates on two fronts — US curbs on Chinese AI-cloud access and an EU digital-sovereignty retreat from US providers — and Ukraine's institutionalized long-range strikes keep Russia's Azov logistics under sustained pressure.

I fact-checked this carefully. The dramatic proposal language ('Hormuz closed, global oil crisis') is only partly current: a two-week ceasefire was struck June 18, then collapsed ('Trump says ceasefire is over' after new strikes). Crucially, Brent is CALM at $76 (−0.4%) — inconsistent with a sustained Hormuz closure or true oil crisis. Markets are pricing a Trump-style rhetorical/limited exchange, not a war. Trump's profile (BVI 8) and the 2020 Soleimani template — escalate, absorb Iran's symbolic response, then de-escalate within days — cap the ceiling. The 'additional strike' bar is low and we are in an active hot phase, which pushes probability up; but my military track record shows I overestimate by 21pp, so I compress from the ~0.75 a naive reading would give down to 0.66. The Middle East chain is in 'aftermath' (94% 'Real Escalation', purity 0.88), i.e. the peak has passed and the residual is limited-exchange risk. Net: more likely than not, but explicitly bounded by de-escalation dynamics.