Renewed Russian strike waves threaten fresh Ukrainian evacuation orders while a fragile Trump-brokered Israel-Lebanon truce struggles through early violations; meanwhile North Korea's 2026 missile tempo makes another launch near-certain, and China's $26B battery buildout is set to force a Western industrial-policy response.

Fact-check confirmed the 600 GWh / $26B buildout is real and widely reported — not a speculative signal. The resolution criterion is deliberately broad ('major announcement,' covering tariffs, IRA expansion, or emergency industrial policy), which substantially raises base rate within a 90-day window given: (a) Trump administration's ongoing tariff escalation against China (event chain in ESCALATION with 362 clusters); (b) active EU defense/industrial restructuring (event chain in DEVELOPMENT with 265 clusters); (c) the AI-industry chain shows 25% weight on 'Geopolitical AI Race' with 70% export-controls outcome, which bleeds into battery policy. Risk: announcements may be framed as general-purpose industrial policy rather than explicitly 'battery response,' creating ambiguity. My technology Brier is 0.092 (strong, though n=1), so I trust my judgment here. I go slightly above the analyst's 0.62 because the criterion is more permissive than they credited.