A confirmed US-Iran peace deal opening the Strait of Hormuz sent oil down nearly 5%, but Israel's independent strikes on Lebanon keep the regional war's spoiler track alive even as the bilateral conflict winds down. In parallel, US export controls have already forced Anthropic to geofence its top AI models, while certificate revocations accelerate Russia's internet fragmentation.

This forecast is already materializing. My fact-check confirms Washington Post reporting that Israeli strikes killed 4 in Lebanon and that Hezbollah rejected the latest ceasefire, plus Reuters (June 4) quoting Israel's defense minister that operations in Lebanon will continue 'despite ceasefire.' This validates the military analyst's core thesis: the US-Iran bilateral track and the Israel-Hezbollah track are distinct escalation ladders, and Israel retains full operational freedom. Netanyahu's behavioral profile (BVI 6) confirms the pattern — military escalation when coalition survival requires it, and a tendency to keep operations running to placate far-right partners (Ben Gvir/Smotrich) regardless of US diplomatic progress. The Skeptic rated this strongly (83) and noted Israeli repeat strikes in unresolved northern fronts are common. The military analyst has my best track record (Brier 0.08), and military is my strongest sector (Brier 0.076, slight under-prediction bias), so I nudge above the analyst's 0.80 to 0.90 given strikes are confirmed ongoing.