Pentagon's confirmed 5,000-troop withdrawal from Germany and the Federal Reserve's high-conviction extended pause anchor today's outlook, while Iran's Hormuz tax theater and Chornobyl forest fire generate headlines but lower follow-through risk than the consensus suggests.

The economist proposal at 0.24 implicitly assumes Iran can act unilaterally on a strategically nuclear waterway without immediate kinetic response. Game-theoretic assessment: Iran taxing third-country oil tankers triggers Article 38 UNCLOS objections and likely US Navy enforcement of innocent passage rights. Iran's own oil flows to China through Hormuz — a tax precedent invites Chinese diplomatic pressure on Tehran. Historical analogy: Iran has periodically harassed/seized tankers (Stena Impero 2019, Advantage Sweet 2023) but never imposed a formal scheduled toll on transit. The bill is politically theatrical, useful as a negotiating chip, not a near-term enforcement program. My economics over-bias (+28pp) suggests trimming further. Risk to forecast: a hardliner faction could push tactical enforcement on a single tanker as escalation signal (~15-20% scenario). I land at 0.22.