Seldon Vault — AI Geopolitical Forecast Engine
Seldon Vault is a free, public AI-powered geopolitical forecasting engine. It uses a multi-agent LLM architecture with 7 specialized analysts, an adversarial Skeptic with fact-checking, and a Seldon Arbiter to generate daily probabilistic forecasts.
How it works
The system collects news signals from RSS feeds, GDELT, ACLED, Reddit, Telegram, and other sources. Signals are processed through 7 AI analysts in parallel (geopolitician, economist, technologist, sociologist, climatologist, military analyst, cybersecurity analyst), subjected to adversarial Skeptic review with Tavily fact-checking, and synthesized by the Seldon Arbiter. Probabilities are updated via Bayesian inference every 6 hours. Accuracy is tracked using Brier Score.
Key features
Daily AI-generated geopolitical, economic, and technological forecasts
Multi-agent ensemble analysis (7 analysts + skeptic + arbiter)
Bayesian probability updates every 6 hours
Brier score accuracy tracking
Cascade narrative detection (causal chains between forecasts)
The Seldon Plan — monthly structural forecasts (1-10 year horizons)
Interactive world map with regional risk analysis
Bilingual support (English and Russian)
Public read-only REST API
Pages
API
Public REST API at /developers . Endpoints: GET /api/v1/forecasts, GET /api/v1/narratives, GET /api/v1/metrics, GET /api/v1/regions, GET /api/v1/events/stream (SSE). No authentication required.
More details: /llms.txt | /feed.xml (Atom feed) | /sitemap.xml
Browse Forecasts / Iranian-linked cyber actors will target Gulf maritime or energy firms within 45 days Iranian-linked cyber actors will target Gulf maritime or energy firms within 45 days Cybersecurity High Resolved Long-term (31-90d) Incorrect ⚙ Auto-resolved
Description: The Hormuz crisis significantly elevates the value of cyber pressure against Gulf shipping, port, and energy operators. Iranian APT groups (APT33/Elfin, APT34/OilRig) have established capability and precedent for targeting this sector, and even limited IT disruptions can amplify market panic during an active maritime standoff.
Synthesis: The Hormuz crisis dominates today's outlook: Iran's selective strait control cascades into oil market disruption, Fed policy rigidity, cyber escalation risk, and US naval reinforcement — while US-China tech decoupling deepens in the shadow of Middle East conflict.
Part of Narrative: amplifies amplifies triggers 82% Brent crude oil will exceed … 95% United States will deploy ad… 95% Iran will maintain selective… 95% Iranian-linked cyber actors … Analysis: Cybersecurity Analyst +
Skeptic Approved Confidence Score: 74/100
+ Resolution Attempts (15) ▼
Probability History: 03/20/2026, 10:10 AM 03/21/2026, 03:07 AM 03/22/2026, 09:06 PM 03/25/2026, 03:06 PM 03/29/2026, 03:09 AM 03/31/2026, 09:08 PM 04/24/2026, 04:10 PM 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% ▼ Probability Updates (22)
0%