Governments are running into hard budget limits: Russia is cutting welfare to pay for a record military budget, Iran is warning of winter gas shortages after war damage, and the Turkish lira is close to 50 per dollar. At the same time, protests in France and Albania, settler violence in the West Bank and new Russian internet restrictions all look likely to continue this autumn.

The strike on 29 September was deliberately timed ahead of the 2027 budget. Parliament's budget debate runs through October and November and gives unions natural moments to call more action. France has a strong pattern of this: joint union fronts in 2010, 2019-20, 2023 and 2025 all went on to stage further days. The Skeptic is right that the follow-up base rate was not quantified, and that a pay settlement or the CFDT pulling out could end the front. A web search found no confirmed new date yet; one snippet about a 13 October call appears to date from 2023. A wide pay settlement under budget austerity looks unlikely, though. A call by some unions or a single sector (for example teachers via the FSU) still counts as nationwide. The sociologist's council was unanimous at 0.70-0.72 and has a good record (weight 1.00). I have underestimated social outcomes by about 9 points, so I set 0.75.